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Thought I add this in from LinkedIn: US competitor in the next 10 years February 4, 2009

Posted by @Karen_Fu in Uncategorized.
Tags: , , , , ,

Who is more likely to challenge the economic strength of the U.S. in the next 10 years? China or India? Why?

Asked by Jason Rodriguez

My public answer:

“I can’t even see the link… anyway I will answer from what your question asks: it is an interesting question if you put the time frame as a span of 10 years. If its 30-50 years, it could have been a different answer. So lets focus on what may be happening in the next 10 years. I think the US will still remain in dominance and lead in various areas of science and technology because it has a very superior foundation that cannot be taken away that easily. Unless there are few things happening: -natural disasters that befall the country that could bleed the nations resources. -further turmoil economically that cannot be salvaged effectively within the next few years; which will send the foreign talent in the US to move out or back to their native land. – social unrest and spike in crime. – unexpected challenges arising from warring states in the middle east or even from the north. – increase in unemployment rate – increase in social breakdown mainly due to economic hardship in a very bad way. Notwithstanding, China and India, if they share the above same problems will face similar predicaments. Despite so, even if they could control the current crisis well and maintain in positive growth, I don’t think they can beat the US within 10 years. Maybe in 20 or 30 years, with constant postive growth, improvement in their infrastructure and education; health and security. I do not know that much about india other than seeing the indians here on business. They are impressive people who can match with the Americans anytime. But the problem with their country is that the benefit from their rapid growth doesn’t spread uniformly throughtout the country. If they stand alone in groups like Mumbai, New Delhi, with other prospering cities, it could have put them up in a better situation. Comparatively, China has a better spread. I recently attend an arts event held by the mainland Chinese. Together with what I have seen so far, they are learning very quick. I don’t even think that English is their stumbling block given their hunger for knowledge. Last years Bejing Oylmpics somewhat showed their determination to come up as a strong nation despite the environmental odds and the negative press review. Considering that, I think China is very determine to make it. India is very well known for finance talent and software talent. A lot of able people at top international financial establishments. Their ability in technology especially in developing inexpensive products is also a force to reckon with. Both cultures are historically very vibrant. If they want to prosper and surpass the states, they must learn to create a sense of order. Especially political and social sense of order so that economically and politiaclly they can set up for greater ambitions. They also lack creativity and imagination when compared the States due to the lack of expressive freedom in thinking. If that grip is lessen, it will be a totally different story.


1. mrred - April 22, 2009

Love this blog I’ll be back when I have more time.

2. Karen - April 22, 2009

thanks for the compliment ! Do feel free to comment here when you have the time !

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